The Kremlin agrees to a ceasefire, but on what terms? Russia is winning. Ukraine is losing, so it is natural that conditions will be dictated.
According to Ashura News, citing Newsonline, the Christian Science Monitor website wrote in an analysis: Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is ready in principle to accept Donald Trump's idea of a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, but believes that details are key and more work is needed to formulate an acceptable agreement.
Putin met with Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff at the Kremlin on Thursday night, but neither side commented after the meeting. This is seen as a sign that Putin is insisting on a list of strict conditions that must be met before ordering a halt to the gradual advance of his forces.
According to experts, more phone conversations between the Russian and US presidents will be needed to clarify whether Putin's hesitant approach is simply an attempt to undermine the entire US plan, or is simply a sign of excessive caution.
“Putin is serious,” says Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of research programs at the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. “He is ready to stop the war, but under certain conditions.” He added, “He is not interested in animosity with Trump. We do not want to return to a situation where there is a united front of Europe and the United States against Russia.”
However, Suslov emphasizes, “The idea of a ceasefire without preconditions is completely unacceptable for Russia.”
Is it just a breathing space?
The Kremlin is concerned that Ukraine, whose forces are holding out a thousand miles along the front line, will use the 30-day truce as an opportunity to rebuild, rearm and return to the war on better terms.
The Russian president outlined his terms at a press conference before meeting with Vitkoff, saying he did not want a pause that would be detrimental to Russia, but rather the start of serious, practical negotiations that would lead to a lasting peace agreement.
“How will these 30 days be used? To continue the forced mobilization in Ukraine? To receive more weapons? To train newly mobilized units?”
Suslov said the Kremlin would likely insist that the outline of a final agreement be determined before any ceasefire goes into effect. Moscow’s vision of such a deal would weaken Ukraine, annex four semi-occupied regions and Crimea to Russia, limit the size of the Ukrainian army, and commit to never joining NATO, among other demands.
“It shouldn’t be too hard, because we [Moscow and Washington] already agree on some basic principles,” he says, such as Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO and no return to previous borders.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine has ever shown any interest in a ceasefire that would simply freeze the front line indefinitely. Both sides seem to believe that no such agreement would be reliable or sustainable and have so far preferred to pursue their separate options on the battlefield.
Peace on Russia’s terms?
Russian and Ukrainian officials often point to their disappointing experience over nearly a decade of trying to implement the ceasefire enshrined in the Minsk agreements. The agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015 and backed by France and Germany, were supposed to end the war in Ukraine’s separatist Donbas region and take steps toward a lasting peace.
Now, both Russia and Ukraine are being dragged to the negotiating table by Trump, who appears to be in a hurry to stop the fighting and then impose an unspecified agreement on both sides.
As he did recently with Ukraine, Trump says he is ready to bring out the sticks, in the form of new sanctions on Russian energy, and has unleashed a barrage of harsh rhetoric against Moscow.
“We could do very bad things to Russia. It would be devastating to Russia, but I don’t want to do that because I want to see peace,” Trump told reporters this week.
Most Russian analysts say they are not swayed by such threats, as a wide range of economic sanctions and diplomatic measures by the West over the past three years have not yielded Russia.
“The United States can and should impose conditions on Ukraine,” Suslov said. “As Trump said to Volodymyr Zelensky, ‘You have no cards.’”
“But Russia has a lot of cards,” he added. “Russia is winning. Ukraine is losing, so it is natural that conditions will be dictated to it. Russia will insist on its conditions, and this must be accepted.”
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